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With the Medicaid expansion now on solid legislative footing, we believe hold-out states will give in to their (Keynesian) self-interests, and expand their programs. This, plus the eventual inclusion of dually-eligible Medicare / Medicaid beneficiaries in managed programs works to the benefit of the Medicaid-predominant HMOs (CNC, MOH, WCG). WCG sees the most growth from both drivers (expansion, inclusion of duals), and is least exposed to risks facing the health insurance marketplaces (HIMs). Hospitals’ (e.g. CYH, HCA, LPNT, THC, UHS) net revenue outlook is now more stable, though these cyclical stocks lack any likely sources of volume and/or pricing acceleration. However, of this group HCA is positioned to benefit if states (particularly TX and FL) expand their Medicaid programs, because of the firm’s heavy presence in these states…Read more

Tech / Media / Telecom

The TMT sector is in the midst of a comprehensive once-in-a-generation paradigm shift driven by the contemporaneous maturation of several key innovations that offer consumers and businesses new and significantly better ways to use information.  In this, we expect the few platforms that control user experiences (AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, maybe AMZN) will capture a disproportionate share of value… Read more

Consumer / Housing


Utilities/Renewable Energy

Based on utilities’ announced capex plans, we forecast growth in aggregate electric rate base of ~6% p.a. over 2016-2020, in line with the 6% growth realized over the last five years. Among those companies whose earnings derive predominantly from regulated electric utilities, however, there are several where we expect a significant acceleration or deceleration of rate base growth over 2015-2018. Four stocks that apparently fail to fully price in this expected acceleration in rate base growth are AEE, ED, EIX and PCG… Read more